U.S. Equities & Futures
U.S. markets were closed on Friday for Independence Day, but SPY futures slipped ≈ 0.3–0.6%, reflecting rising investor caution.
Despite the dip in futures, markets were coming off record cash index levels, supported by strong June jobs data and resilient earnings .
Fixed Income & Forex
With U.S. bond markets also closed, futures show the 10‑year Treasury yield up around +4.7 bps, signaling reduced expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts .
The U.S. dollar softened modestly against major peers after recent strength.
Commodities & Safe-Havens
Gold (GLD) gained ~0.4%, rising close to $3,339/oz, driven by safe-haven flows amid renewed tariff concerns.
Oil (WTI) edged lower—Brent ~$68.30, WTI ~$66.50—as markets awaited OPEC+ decisions and holiday-thinned trading.
Crypto
Bitcoin retreated ~0.8–1% to around $108,500, with the pullback likely due to profit-taking and trade-related uncertainty.
Key Market Drivers
Tariff Deadline Approaches
President Trump announced that letters detailing new tariffs (10–70%) would be sent starting July 5, with a final deadline on July 9, increasing global trade anxiety.
Strong U.S. Jobs Data
Thursday’s payroll report showed robust employment, pushing equity indexes to fresh all-time highs but dampening expectations for near-term rate cuts.
Holiday Market Calm
With markets closed for the holiday, trading volumes were light and moves subdued—investors largely awaited trade and OPEC+ headlines.
Strategic Takeaways
| Asset | Strategy Insight |
|---|---|
| Equities | Expect choppiness ahead of July 9 tariff resolution; defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples may perform better. |
| Bonds | Elevated yields (~4.7%) could merit barbell strategies with intermediate-term Treasuries. |
| Gold | Continues to act as a hedge; consider maintaining exposure amid geopolitical tensions. |
| Oil | Watch OPEC+ output decisions; range-bound movement likely amid thin holiday trading. |
| Crypto | Short-term volatility expected; focus on institutional flows and macro catalysts. |
Disclaimer:
The information and ideas shared by UPTIQ and its team are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with your licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. All trading involves risk, and you should only trade based on your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals.
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